Amman, January 27 – The Abdul Hameed Shoman Cultural Forum hosted Dr. Waleed Abdul-Hay yesterday evening for a lecture exploring the influence of chaos theory on contemporary international relations, attended by a distinguished audience of scholars and interested professionals. The session was moderated by journalist Maher Abu Tair.
Dr. Abdul-Hay explained that chaos refers to unpredictable interactions, such as wars or political collapses, while anarchy indicates the absence of a central global authority—not necessarily disorder. He distinguished disruption as the breakdown or reformation of systems, citing examples like the dissolution of the Soviet Union, where there was no clear authority or fixed rules guiding the process.
He clarified that chaos does not imply the absence of rules, but rather the inability to predict outcomes despite their existence. Nonlinear and seemingly random, chaotic systems are highly sensitive to initial conditions, exemplified by the “butterfly effect.” Anarchy, by contrast, involves a lack of central control but does not automatically lead to chaos; order can emerge through norms, social consensus, or interactions rather than imposed authority. Disruption, meanwhile, combines elements of order and chaos, creating transitional states that are neither fully stable nor entirely disordered.
Dr. Abdul-Hay emphasized the growing complexity of international life, noting that without expert input across multiple fields, Arab decision-making risks fluctuating between randomness and reactive adaptation to external pressures. He stressed the importance of foresight studies in managing the gap between rapidly accelerating change and slower societal adaptation.
He also addressed globalization as a network of interdependent connections that often competes with more rigid, structured links, explaining some of the irregularities observed in international affairs. Furthermore, technological and knowledge advances continue to challenge established value systems worldwide, ensuring that chaos, anarchy, and disruption will remain persistent features for generations to come.
Dr. Abdul-Hay highlighted the Hegelian complex of order and chaos as a useful framework for understanding transitional periods in the international system—from pre-state empires, to nation-states, to regional organizations, and ultimately to globalization.
In a world defined by accelerating events and overlapping crises, traditional models of international relations struggle to capture ongoing transformations. Chaos theory offers a new perspective, recognizing that complex systems, including the global system, do not always follow linear causality or predictable paths. Minor changes or marginal events can produce major unexpected consequences—the essence of the butterfly effect.
By emphasizing the dynamic and fluctuating nature of global power, chaos theory challenges assumptions of stability and equilibrium, offering a fresh lens to understand contemporary international relations.